B6 1414 · DCA → MVY

took off 12:15 PM ET · landed 1:14 PM ET (scheduled 12:05 PM ET → 1:41 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MVY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MVY that day

↓ MVY usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MVY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

MVY (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1414 · DCA → MVY

Odds over time

How late did it get to MVY?