C5 4230 · AVP → IAD

departs 3:03 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AVP that day

Weather at each end

AVP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4230 · AVP → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?