Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
C5 4230 · AVP → IAD
departs 3:17 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 27%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave AVP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AVP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.