C5 4945 · IAD → ITH

departs 5:34 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITH?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into ITH at that hour are usually not late

↓ ITH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.11 in

ITH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4945 · IAD → ITH

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITH?