Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
C5 4945 · IAD → ITH
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ITH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ITH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at ITH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into ITH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ITH (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.