DL 2866 · MSP → EWR

departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2866 · MSP → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?