ET 512 · ABJ → JFK

departs 1:30 PM GMT · arrives 7:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABJ

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ABJ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 512 · ABJ → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?