F9 1149 · MSP → DEN

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 3:46 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1149 · MSP → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?