F9 1665 · BWI → MIA

took off 10:59 AM ET · expected to land 1:12 PM ET (scheduled 10:46 AM ET → 1:40 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BWI that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 10am departures from BWI are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.24 in

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1665 · BWI → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?