F9 4132 · LAS → IAH

departs 12:49 AM PT · arrives 6:03 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,433 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4132 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?