Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4132
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 4132 · LAS → IAH
departs 12:53 AM PT · arrives 5:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 30%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 31%
Mon 10/19 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
12am departures from LAS are often late
↓
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.