F9 4132 · LAS → IAH

departs 12:50 AM PT · arrives 6:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4132 · LAS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?