Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 4746 · LAS → MSP
departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 7:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.