Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
F9 4954 · MIA → PHL
departs 8:46 PM ET · arrives 11:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.