Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 12
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
JX 12 · TPE → SFO
departs 12:18 AM CST · arrives 8:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE
Weather at each end
TPE (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.