Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 12 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:15 AM CST, SEEN BY ADS-B, ETA 7:35 PM PT)

Tuesday, October 13 Today

JX 12 · TPE → SFO

took off 12:15 AM CST · expected to land 7:35 PM PT (scheduled 12:05 AM CST → 8:37 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

TPE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

JX 12 · TPE → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?