MQ 3509 · DCA → OKC

took off 2:39 PM ET · expected to land 4:18 PM CT (scheduled 2:44 PM ET → 5:11 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OKC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OKC is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at OKC that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

OKC (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3509 · DCA → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?