MQ 3615 · EIS → MIA

took off 3:52 PM AST · expected to land 6:06 PM ET (scheduled 3:51 PM AST → 6:48 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EIS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EIS (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3615 · EIS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?