Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 3633 · SDF → DCA
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 7:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.