Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 3761 · TRI → DFW
departs 7:08 AM ET · arrives 8:43 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 11%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave TRI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TRI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.