Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3761 · TRI → DFW
departs 7:11 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TRI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TRI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.