Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3966
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 3966 · MIA → TLH
departs 1:38 PM ET · arrives 3:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.