MQ 3997 · HSV → DCA

departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 1:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ HSV is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HSV (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3997 · HSV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?