Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Yesterday

MQ 4004 · HXD → CLT

departs 1:03 AM CST · arrives 2:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HXD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CLT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4004 · HXD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?