Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4072
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 4072 · CZM → MIA
departs 2:41 PM EST · arrives 5:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 20%
Wed 10/14 27%
Thu 10/15 34%
Fri 10/16 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave CZM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CZM (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.