Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4072
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 4072 · MIA → CZM
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM EST
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at CZM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CZM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CZM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CZM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into CZM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
CZM (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.