MQ 4096 · CLE → DCA

departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 6:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from CLE are often late

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4096 · CLE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?