Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
MQ 4128 · DCA → HSV
departs 11:55 AM ET · arrives 1:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.