MQ 4198 · TRI → ORD

took off 6:13 AM ET · landed 6:33 AM CT (scheduled 5:56 AM ET → 6:49 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

TRI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4198 · TRI → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?