Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4198 · TRI → ORD
departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 7:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TRI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TRI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.