Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
MQ 4316 · MAR → MIA
departs 2:19 PM -04 · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 28%
Sat 10/17 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAR
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.