MQ 4325 · MIA → MAR

took off 10:32 AM ET · expected to land 1:22 PM -04 (scheduled 10:18 AM ET → 1:35 PM -04)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MAR more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MAR?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MAR

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

MAR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4325 · MIA → MAR

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAR?