MX 811 · CVG → SAN

took off 1:21 PM ET · expected to land 2:40 PM PT (scheduled 10:15 AM ET → 12:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 811 · CVG → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?