Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MX 811 · CVG → SFO
departs 9:36 AM ET · arrives 11:42 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 26%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.