Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5396 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Today

OH 5396 · BUF → DCA

departs 6:02 AM ET · arrives 7:34 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5396 · BUF → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?