Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Today
OO 4009 · MSP → ATW
departs 9:47 PM CT · arrives 11:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/13 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ATW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.