Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
OO 4103 · MSP → MSN
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:11 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.