PD 2121 · YTZ → EWR

departs 6:45 AM EDT · arrives 8:29 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

YTZ (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 2121 · YTZ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?