Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2121
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
PD 2121 · YTZ → EWR
departs 6:45 AM EDT · arrives 8:26 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YTZ is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.10 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.