Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Yesterday
PT 5786 · GSP → PHL
departs 4:09 PM ET · arrives 6:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12
Today 19%
Wed 10/14 18%
Sat 10/17 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.