PT 5786 · GSP → PHL

departs 4:08 PM ET · arrives 6:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5786 · GSP → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?