QK 459 · LGA → YYZ

departs 11:50 AM ET · arrives 1:25 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into YYZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling467 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.10 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 459 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?