Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

QK 459 · LGA → YYZ

departs 11:33 AM ET · arrives 1:11 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 459 · LGA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?