QK 538 · YTZ → LGA

took off 6:13 PM EDT · expected to land 7:17 PM ET (scheduled 6:10 PM EDT → 7:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YTZ (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 538 · YTZ → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?