Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 782 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

QK 782 · YYZ → DCA

departs 4:50 PM EDT · arrives 6:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 782 · YYZ → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?