QK 820 · DCA → YUL

took off 6:03 AM ET · landed 7:26 AM EDT (scheduled 6:00 AM ET → 7:49 AM EDT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YUL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DCA are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

YUL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 820 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late did it get to YUL?