SY 395 · MSP → SFO

departs 3:14 PM CT · arrives 5:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 395 · MSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?