SY 503 · MSP → DFW

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 503 · MSP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?