TP 226 · MIA → LIS

took off 12:36 AM ET · expected to land 1:10 PM WEST (scheduled 12:36 AM ET → 1:34 PM WEST)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ TP's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 226 · MIA → LIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIS?