UA 1458 · SFO → MIA

took off 1:16 PM PT · expected to land 9:06 PM ET (scheduled 12:15 PM PT → 8:49 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

88% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
12%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
38%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1458 · SFO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?